Analysts Skeptical as Majority Owner Takes Role as Chief Executive of Sears

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

A Sears in Peabody, Mass.

Just hours after a board discussion on Monday, a note went out to Sears Holdings employees from Edward S. Lampert, the company’s majority owner and chairman, that he would now be its chief executive.

“I believe in our company,” Mr. Lampert wrote.

But not everyone shares his optimism.

Seven years after he engineered the merger of Sears and Kmart, Mr. Lampert’s plans for the company face a new round of skepticism.

On Monday, Sears announced that its chief executive of two years, Louis J. D’Ambrosio, would be stepping aside because of a health issue in his family and that Mr. Lampert would assume the role. Despite the unexpected departure, Sears is not expected to change course.

“The reality is, Eddie’s been running the company the whole time,” said Gary Balter, an analyst at Credit Suisse.

Mr. Lampert once stepped back from day-to-day management, but more recently he has increased involvement in Sears as he has scaled back his influence on other investments. He maintains an office at Sears headquarters in Hoffman Estates, Ill., although he lives on the East Coast.

If employees “wanted to make merchandising decisions, they had to fly up to Connecticut to get approval from Eddie. He was making day-to-day decisions in this company, and clearly he’s making the capital decisions,” Mr. Balter said.

But Mr. Lampert is a money man, not a merchant, and analysts question his plans for reviving Sears, which has faltered since he combined Sears and Kmart. It has valuable assets, they say, but sales and profitability continue to slide. In his most recent chairman’s letter, Mr. Lampert outlined some ways he wanted to take Sears forward, including building on its loyalty program and expanding what he called “integrated” options — allowing shoppers to buy online, in stores, via mobile devices or a combination. He highlighted Sears’s liquidity options and its ownership of and access to cash from Lands’ End, the clothing retailer Sears bought in 2002, and its real estate, “should the circumstances warrant.” He further wrote, “We do not expect to utilize or execute all of these options,” but he said he wanted to reassure vendors.

“If you’re unwilling to try new things, and to fail and learn, you don’t have a shot,” Mr. Lampert said in an interview last year. “That doesn’t mean you’re going to be successful, but you have to try to change.”

Mr. Lampert’s new role as chief executive of a struggling company is a new one for him.

When he was younger, Mr. Lampert made a name for himself with his fast rise through the ranks at Goldman Sachs, his brash courtship of Wall Street idols like Richard Rainwater and Robert Rubin and, when he started his investment fund ESL Investments in 1988, the high returns at the fund. He invested in struggling retailers like AutoNation and AutoZone in the 1990s and early 2000s, then bought a controlling stake in Kmart when it was in bankruptcy. In 2005, he completed the merger with Sears.

And, adding some Hollywood flair to the story line, after being kidnapped at gunpoint from a parking garage in 2003, Mr. Lampert, after being held for about 30 hours, managed to negotiate his own release.

Fortune called the billionaire “the best investor of his generation.” Bloomberg Businessweek asked if he was “The Next Warren Buffett?”

But Sears value has declined since then. His initial idea was to combine the best of Sears and Kmart and sell some appealing locations to competitors. But the recession meant the real estate was no longer in demand, and now many large retailers are downsizing or closing stores.

As the real estate options diminished, Sears was losing sales. The people Mr. Lampert hired to run the company were not retailers, and instead had backgrounds in fast food, supply chains and technology.

Sears’s sales have declined for five straight years, and its market capitalization now is 15 percent of what it was at the beginning of 2006. In the third quarter, the company lost $498 million, up from $410 million for the same quarter in 2011. Sales fell by $548 million, to $8.9 billion.

In the last year, Mr. Lampert has directed a cleanup of the balance sheet. He sold some valuable real estate, spun off business units and reduced inventory to assuage liquidity concerns after a dismal 2011 holiday sales season.

This year, it spun off a profitable hardware retail division and part of its stake in Sears Canada.

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LAPD force exceeds 10,000 for the first time, officials say

For the first time in the city's history, Los Angeles' police force now exceeds 10,000 officers, city officials said Monday.

Appearing with LAPD Chief Charlie Beck to discuss the continued drop in crime last year, Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said the department is budgeted for 10,023 officers, up from the 9,963 authorized over the last three years, during a deep budget crisis.

The staffing increase took effect Jan. 1, when 60 sworn officers moved into the LAPD from the General Services Department, which patrols parks, libraries and other municipal buildings, said Villaraigosa spokesman Peter Sanders. Those officers will continue to patrol city facilities, budget officials said.

Some questioned the significance of the staffing milestone, since the overall number of sworn officers employed by the city hasn't grown.

"It's an increase for show," said Kevin James, a candidate for mayor in the March 5 election who has questioned Villaraigosa's LAPD hiring goals. "The mayor really wanted to get to 10,000 one way or the other before he left office, and this was the way he could do it under the current budget constraints."

Los Angeles experienced a 10.5% decrease in gang crime and an 8.2% drop in violent crime last year, compared with 2011. The city had the lowest number of violent crimes per capita of any major city, including New York and Chicago, Villaraigosa said.

The mayor attributed those numbers — and a decade-long decline in crime — in large part to the expansion of the police force.

Villaraigosa originally promised to add 1,000 new officers to the department during the 2005 election campaign, criticizing then-Mayor James K. Hahn for failing to do so. Since then, he has succeeded in adding 800 officers, Sanders said. On Monday, Villaraigosa suggested that the addition of the final 200 will not be achieved until after June 30, when he leaves office.

"I would hope that the next mayor would, as we get out of this economic crisis, increase our Police Department to that 1,000," he said.

While Villaraigosa has been pushing for continued hiring at the LAPD, Beck has warned in recent weeks that the LAPD would lose 500 officers if voters fail to approve Proposition A, a half-cent sales tax measure on the March 5 ballot. That would represent more than half of the LAPD buildup accomplished by Villaraigosa.

Despite Beck's warnings, Villaraigosa said he is not ready to endorse Proposition A until the council makes a series of cost-cutting moves, such as turning over operation of the city zoo to a private entity.

Since Villaraigosa took office, homicides have decreased 38% and gang crime has dropped by a similar amount. The number of slayings has stayed largely the same over the last three years, with 297 homicides in 2010, 297 in 2011 and 298 last year. Overall crime dropped 1.4% last year. Property crimes, which are more numerous than violent crimes, increased for the first time in several years — driven in part by a 30% increase in cell phone thefts, officials said.

With little money to pay officers for overtime, the department has been compensating them with time off. The resulting staffing loss has been the equivalent of about 450 officers at any given time, according to department figures — a hit that has complicated crime-fighting strategies.

Preserving LAPD funding has become increasingly challenging for council members. For nine months they have debated whether to lay off dozens of civilian LAPD employees while continuing to hire enough police officers to maintain current staffing levels.

Councilman Paul Koretz, who opposed the layoffs, said the movement of the 60 building patrol officers to the LAPD was "a little smoke and mirrors." He questioned whether the LAPD buildup in the Villaraigosa era was financially sustainable.

"It just seems like we really never did the analysis to see if we could afford it," he said.

A defeat of the sales tax increase, which is projected to generate roughly $215 million in new revenue, would leave council members no choice but to roll back the size of the LAPD, Koretz said.

But Villaraigosa warned that would be dangerous, saying other California cities have seen upticks in crime after cutting back on officers.

"I know some people think that 10,000 cops is a magical illusion, a meaningless number, that more officers don't necessarily lead to a reduction in crime," said the mayor, adding: "Those critics talk a lot, but they're just plain wrong."

david.zahniser@latimes.com

richard.winton@latimes.com

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Tower-Climbing, Frisbee-Tossing Robots Kick Off 2013 START Competition

Representatives from more than 50 high schools gathered at San Jose State University Saturday for the kickoff to the 2013 season of the FIRST Robotics Competition, inventor Dean Kamen’s attempt to turn robotics and engineering education into a high school sports-like event. This year’s competition: build a robot that can throw Frisbees and climb a 90-inch-tall metal pyramid tower.

The 22nd annual kickoff brought the Silicon Valley Region together for a video broadcast announcing the particulars of the season, which will incorporate six weeks of building, followed by regional competitions and eventually an international championship. Each year, teams of high school students receive a kit of parts and detailed descriptions of a game their robots must play. Typically, the goals involve some sort of projectile and alliances of three robots, each backed by their builders/operators. But each year the game is different; in the past, robots have fired basketballs at hoops, placed inflatables on racks and knocked soccer balls through goals.

Though the game changes, the goal is the same — to grow the status of STEM (Science Technology Engineering Mathematics) education. Even the name FIRST, while sometimes confusing, is a reference to that object: For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology.

“People tend to really enjoy engineering and math and science if they get to build robots,” says Anand Atreya, a FIRST alum from 10 years ago, who has since received degrees from Princeton and MIT, and is currently a Ph.D. student in electrical engineering at Stanford. Volunteering on FIRST’s Silicon Valley Regional Planning Committee, he says the competition has changed in two primary ways: the number of teams has grown, as has the quality of equipment in the kits that each team receives as part of the kickoff. While still not as popular as high school football, funding has grown too — sponsors donate parts for the kits, and universities and professional associations offer more than $16 million in scholarships to FIRST graduates.

Teams in the 2013 competition, titled “Ultimate Ascent,” will compete to throw Frisbees through goals on either end of the playing court. Points are awarded for successful tosses, based on the difficulty of each goal. Then, as the competition ends, the robots can ascend a pyramid made of metal pipes on their side of the field — if they remain suspended, they get extra points.

But it gets more complicated. Because robots are allied in groups of three, not every robot does the same thing. Each gets points for climbing, but some will play defense, and some will scoop up Frisbees to deliver to robots that specialize in throwing. It’s a collaborative, competitive effort.

For Presentation High School in San Jose, 2013 will be the team’s 7th year competing. The school is all-girls, so the team is too.

“The girls are every bit as smart as the guys, but they don’t have confidence,” says David Simpson, the team’s coach, adding that part of why he’s involved is to help more girls to participate in engineering. “What we’ve found is that having FIRST on the application is a big help getting into school,” he says.

Led by senior co-captains Gabi Pastera, Jen Earley, and Emily Mullins, the team is already brainstorming as they go to pick up their kits.

“We gotta make it really light,” says Earley.

“We can use 16th-inch wall, if we’re not worried about people pushing us around,” Mullins suggests. They haven’t decided whether to build a defensive or offensive robot.

The team of about 30 students will spend nights and weekends for the next six weeks at Presentation’s machine shop, a dedicated space for the robotics club in a house across the street from the school. The shop has been outfitted with three computers running SolidWorks, and a Syil CNC milling machine. Scattered about the workshop are other tools, motors, wires, and parts of robots from previous years. Mullins will design parts on SolidWorks, Pastera and Earley will mill them on the machine.

But first, they convene with the rest of the team. It’s still early on a Saturday morning — the kickoff started early, and teams had grabbed their kits, taken a look at a sample pyramid, and split by 8:30am — but the girls buzz with energy (and donuts) as they go over the rules. Then Earley, Pastera, and junior Kiki Sham open the kit, comparing the cables, motors, sensors, and hundreds of other parts to the kit checklist. Most teams will have additional parts — Presentation has been stockpiling aluminum — from sponsors or from previous years. They have six weeks to work on the robot, after which they must seal it in a bag, to be opened only at competitions.

In April, Presentation High will compete at the Silicon Valley Regional Competition, one of 57 around the country that will send a total of about 400 teams to the 2013 championships, held April 24-27 in St. Louis. (FIRST encourages spectators to attend the competitions; a full list of dates and locations can be found on their website.)

Next year, Gabi will be moving on to engineering school. Though she hasn’t decided which one, her passion for the subject arose from her involvement in FIRST, which she joined as a freshman.

“I actually didn’t know anything about robotics before I joined,” she says. “It kind of becomes an addiction after a while.”

Photos: Nathan Hurst

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Puppy Bowl is back – now with hedgehogs

LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) – Are you ready for some necessary ruff-ness? Good, because Puppy Bowl IX is officially a go.

Animal Planet has confirmed that its cherished annual tradition, Puppy Bowl, is back on for another round of gridiron thrills and canine cuteness.

This year’s Puppy Bowl will take place February 3 – for those who don’t follow non-puppy sports, that’s Super Bowl Sunday – from 3 to 5 p.m., at the newly christened Geico Stadium, with 63 pooches vying for glory on the field.

The latest incarnation of the animal kingdom’s most-anticipated sporting event is receiving a few tweaks this year. In a first for the nine-year-old Puppy Bowl, the battling canines will be encouraged from the sidelines by a squadron of hedgehog cheerleaders. In another first, new Puppy Cam technology will put viewers on the field with “in-your-face” shots of snouts, tails and paws, while an off-field camera will capture substitutes warming up for the game in a special puppy hot tub. (Three words: underwater puppy shots.)

As always, the game will feature the Kitty Half-Time Show, where kittens will provide a break from the action on the field with an array of acrobatics and gymnastics, culminating in a confetti shower. (Because, really, do you expect any surprises from Beyonce’s half-time show this year?)

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Oil Sand Industry in Canada Tied to Higher Carcinogen Level

Todd Korol/Reuters

An oil sands mine Fort McMurray, Alberta.

OTTAWA — The development of Alberta’s oil sands has increased levels of cancer-causing compounds in surrounding lakes well beyond natural levels, Canadian researchers reported in a study released on Monday. And they said the contamination covered a wider area than had previously been believed.

For the study, financed by the Canadian government, the researchers set out to develop a historical record of the contamination, analyzing sediment dating back about 50 years from six small and shallow lakes north of Fort McMurray, Alberta, the center of the oil sands industry. Layers of the sediment were tested for deposits of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, or PAHs, groups of chemicals associated with oil that in many cases have been found to cause cancer in humans after long-term exposure.

“One of the biggest challenges is that we lacked long-term data,” said John P. Smol, the paper’s lead author and a professor of biology at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario. “So some in industry have been saying that the pollution in the tar sands is natural, it’s always been there.”

The researchers found that to the contrary, the levels of those deposits have been steadily rising since large-scale oil sands production began in 1978.

Samples from one test site, the paper said, now show 2.5 to 23 times more PAHs in current sediment than in layers dating back to around 1960.

“We’re not saying these are poisonous ponds,” Professor Smol said. “But it’s going to get worse. It’s not too late but the trend is not looking good.” He said that the wilderness lakes studied by the group were now contaminated as much as lakes in urban centers.

The study is likely to provide further ammunition to critics of the industry, who already contend that oil extracted from Canada’s oil sands poses environmental hazards like toxic sludge ponds, greenhouse gas emissions and the destruction of boreal forests.

Battles are also under way over the proposed construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, which would move the oil down through the western United States and down to refineries along the Gulf Coast, or an alternative pipeline that would transport the oil from landlocked Alberta to British Columbia for export to Asia.

The researchers, who included scientists at Environment Canada’s aquatic contaminants research division, chose to test for PAHs because they had been the subject of earlier studies, including one published in 2009 that analyzed the distribution of the chemicals in snowfall north of Fort McMurray. That research drew criticism from the government of Alberta and others for failing to provide a historical baseline.

“Now we have the smoking gun,” Professor Smol said.

He said he was not surprised that the analysis found a rise in PAH deposits after the industrial development of the oil sands, “but we needed the data.” He said he had not entirely expected, however, to observe the effect at the most remote test site, a lake that is about 50 miles to the north.

Asked about the study, Adam Sweet, a spokesman for Peter Kent, Canada’s environment minister, emphasized in an e-mail that with the exception of one lake very close to the oil sands, the levels of contaminants measured by the researchers “did not exceed Canadian guidelines and were low compared to urban areas.”

He added that an environmental monitoring program for the region announced last February 2012 was put into effect “to address the very concerns raised by such studies” and to “provide an improved understanding of the long-term cumulative effects of oil sands development.”

Earlier research has suggested several different ways that the chemicals could spread. Most oil sand production involve large-scale open-pit mining. The chemicals may become wind-borne when giant excavators dig them up and then deposit them into 400-ton dump trucks.

Upgraders at some oil sands projects that separate the oil bitumen from its surrounding sand are believed to emit PAHs. And some scientists believe that vast ponds holding wastewater from that upgrading and from other oil sand processes may be leaking PAHs and other chemicals into downstream bodies of water.

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Euro Watch: Unemployment Continues to Climb in Euro Zone

PARIS — Unemployment in the euro zone rose to a new record in November, according to data released Tuesday that also showed that the troubles in the 17-nation currency zone are straining its strongest member, Germany.

The euro zone jobless rate rose to a new high of 11.8 percent in November from 11.7 percent in October, Eurostat, the statistical agency of the European Union, reported from Luxembourg. Eurostat estimates that about 18.8 million in the euro zone were unemployed in November – 2 million more than a year earlier.

Germany has provided necessary momentum to Europe’s overall economy throughout the past three years, proving resilient to the crisis plaguing the common currency, largely due to the strength of its exports.

But on Tuesday, the Federal Statistics Office in Berlin said that German imports slid 3.7 percent in November, while exports dropped 3.4 percent, resulting in a narrowing of Germany’s trade surplus to €14.6 billion, or $19 billion.

German factory orders also fell in November amid weak demand from outside the euro area, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said Tuesday. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, dropped 1.8 percent from October, when they jumped a revised 3.8 percent.

“The November numbers are not a one-off but an extension of the current trend of weakening exports,” Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING, wrote in a research note on Tuesday in which he pointed out an overall decline in German exports of about 4 percent since last May.

“Today’s data confirmed our view that exports should have turned from driver of growth into drag on growth,” he wrote.

A separate report from Eurostat showed retail sales fell 2.6 percent in November from a year earlier, though they managed a 0.1 percent gain from October.

The latest dire reports come as the governing council of the European Central Bank prepares to hold a policy meeting Thursday, followed by an interest-rate announcement. Despite a sharp dip in bank lending reported last week that has some analysts suggesting the central bank might try new steps to stimulate the economy, economists surveyed by Reuters expect the E.C.B. to leave policy unchanged this month, as it waits for a clearer picture of this year’s economic situation to emerge.

Like their counterparts in the United States, Japan and Britain, the euro zone monetary authorities have already opened the spigots, allowing banks to borrow essentially as much as they want at the benchmark rate. Mario Draghi, the E.C.B. governor, has pledged to do whatever is necessary to ensure the stability of the euro, including, if necessary, buying the sovereign bonds of Spain and Italy to hold their borrowing costs to sustainable levels.

The central bank's action has succeeded in calming markets and driving down government bond yields for embattled countries. The European Commission reported Tuesday that an index of economic sentiment in the euro zone had improved in December by 1.3 points, to 87.0 “Economic sentiment in the euro area improved among consumers and across all sectors, except retail trade,” the commission reported.

Europe also got a vote of confidence from Tokyo on Tuesday, as Finance Minister Taro Aso said Japan would buy bonds of the European Stability Mechanism, the euro zone bailout fund, as well as euro sovereign debt.

“The financial stability of Europe will help the stability of foreign exchange rates, including the yen,” Mr. Aso was quoted by the Nikkei newspaper as saying.

Attacking joblessness may require governments to ease back on austerity measures that many economists, including some at the International Monetary Fund, say might have gone too far. In France, President François Hollande has vowed to turn around the flagging labor market in France, where, according to Eurostat, unemployment as 10.5 percent in November.

Eurostat said Spain, suffering from the collapse of a property bubble and struggling to cope with tough austerity measures, had the highest unemployment rate, at 26.6 percent. Greece, the beleaguered country where the sovereign debt crisis began, was next at 26.0 percent, according to September data. Austria, at 4.5 percent, tiny Luxembourg, at 5.1 percent, and Germany, at 5.4 percent, were the lowest.

Worryingly, youth unemployment continues to grow, with 5.8 million people under 25 classified as jobless in November, up 420,000 from a year earlier.

In Berlin for talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel on Tuesday, the Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras, singled out youth unemployment as one of the largest challenges Greece faces in trying to revive its economy. But he told reporters before meeting the chancellor that his overall message was one of optimism.

“I see the glass half-full,” Mr. Samaras said before taking part in an economic conference held behind closed doors in the German capital. “We’re delivering and Europe’s helping.”

It was the Greek prime minister’s second trip to Berlin since taking office and although the mood appeared lighter than during his inaugural visit in August, which came on the heels of calls from within Ms. Merkel’s government for Greece to leave the common currency, his country still faces enormous challenges.

Greece is focusing its efforts on winning back the trust of Europeans, as well as the markets, Mr. Samaras said. But he stressed that the high unemployment, especially among young people, was weighing heavily on Greeks.

“I would like to make it clear up front that our country is making enormous efforts and many are paying a high price, in order to get things back on track,” Mr. Samaras said.

Ms. Merkel stressed that Greece’s European partners must not leave it alone with its troubles, perhaps wary of the fragility of Mr. Samaras’ three-party coalition government which has been forced to push through deeply unpopular, painful reforms.

“We also must do everything to guarantee economic growth, security and jobs,” Ms. Merkel said.

David Jolly reported from Paris. James Kanter in Brussels and Niki Kitsantonis in Athens contributed reporting.

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From gang member to team player

SAN FRANCISCO — Luis Aroche learned about violence at Leonard R. Flynn Elementary School, across from the projects where his friend Carl lived.

He remembers sitting down at his desk and seeing his teacher, Mrs. Foster, in tears. His class had just finished the Pledge of Allegiance.

"Carl was playing on the swings and got shot," Aroche said. "And died. Kindergarten. He got found laying in a pool of blood in the park," Aroche paused. Swallowed. Started up again. "He was my desk buddy. He would go with me to the bathroom. And now, Carl wasn't there.

"That was my first experience of loss. And I didn't understand it. To this day, I don't understand it."

Aroche since has become something of an expert on violence — as victim, perpetrator and now as part of a hoped-for solution. Last year, San Francisco Dist. Atty. George Gascon hired the former gang member to be his office's first "alternative sentencing planner," part of an effort to keep offenders from ending up back behind bars.

The position, criminal justice experts say, has no equivalent in any prosecutor's office in the country.

And Aroche is as singular as his job. An Aztec skull tattoo stretches down his right forearm to his hand, its grimace partly wiped away by laser removal. The day his juvenile record was sealed, he says, was the happiest of his life.

Today, he helps prosecutors figure out who among San Francisco's low-level offenders deserves a jail cell and who deserves a second chance.

He knows a lot about both.

::

If you were Aroche, 12 years old and living in the Mission District in 1990 — when gangs and crack cocaine meant funerals were as commonplace as quinceañeras — you got a tattoo, cut school and drank beer. You thought a stint in Pelican Bay State Prison was like going off to "Stanford or Yale." You practiced how to sit and talk and smoke like the toughest prisoners.

"We would learn how to iron our clothes using a comb, 'cause that's how you iron your pants in prison," Aroche said. "You iron it with the teeth of the comb … and then you put it underneath the mattress."

Aroche's first tattoo was a small cross on his left hand, in the soft web between thumb and forefinger. He got it in an alleyway not far from the studio apartment where he slept on the floor with his five brothers, three sisters, the occasional niece or nephew. His parents got the bed in the corner.

His Salvadoran mother was a chambermaid at a Fisherman's Wharf motel, his Puerto Rican father a security guard in the Navy shipyards.

And his older brothers? They would disappear for years. Aroche didn't know why until his father took him to visit San Quentin State Prison. They were "main men" in a notorious Northern California prison gang. When they were out, they were "the mayors of the Mission."

By the time Aroche was 15, he was drinking so much and incarcerated so often that he gave himself a test every night before he went to sleep. If he put out his hand and felt warm, smooth drywall, he knew he was home. If he felt cold, slick concrete, he was in custody.

One night he ended up in the hospital. He'd been drunk, hanging out in Lucky Alley, when a car drove up and the doors flew open. Aroche saw his friend get sliced with a machete. Gunshots rang out.

"And I remember some guy grabbing me and hitting me with a crowbar and stabbing me in my stomach," he said. "And I could feel the pierce of my stomach, just ripping me open.... And I thought, this is it. This is it. This is my life."

::

At the computer in his spartan office at the Hall of Justice, Aroche is poring over the official tale of another life in the balance: a 28-year-old woman on a downward spiral.

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IPO Lottery 2013: 10 Companies to Watch

The Chinese calendar might have it pegged as the year of the black snake, but investors are already calling 2013 the year of the enterprise IPO. Not nearly as catchy as something reptilian, but hopefully a lot more profitable than the newly public consumer companies, Facebook chief among them, that took a beating in the public markets in 2012.

Consistent with the enterprise theme, we already know that data-center networking company Gigamon and solid-state storage business Violin Memory have filed their S-1 forms. Other enterprise plays will follow. And just because the smart money is betting on companies that get paid selling to other companies, doesn’t mean some well-known consumer outfits, including Twitter, Square, and Evernote couldn’t try their luck with an IPO in 2013.

We picked nine private companies with public market potential to watch in 2013. For each we weigh the odds of whether, market conditions permitting, of course, they have a shot or not.

Above:

Odds of an IPO: Looking good, but only if it can close its next round

This startup is the darling of the collaborative consumption movement, allowing anyone to put up their house or apartment for travelers to rent. While it’s been close to 18 months since its taken venture capital, Airbnb is already up to $230 million. Rumor has it that the company is vying for a $100 million third round of funding at a $2 billion valuation, and has plans to go public once it closes a new round.

Above: Airbnb co-founder Nate Blecharczyk. Photo:
JD Lasica/Flickr

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Sony, BMG in joint bid for Parlophone, EMI labels – FT

TOKYO (Reuters) – Sony Corp is joining with BMG to bid for Parlophone and other EMI labels on sale by Universal Music, reuniting Sony and Bertelsmann four years after they ended their music joint venture, the Financial Times said on Monday.

Vivendi-owned Universal is being forced to sell Parlophone – EMI’s oldest active label with artists including Coldplay and Pet Shop Boys – to satisfy regulators’ concerns about its $ 1.9 billion purchase of EMI’s recorded music business.

Sony and BMG, a music rights management group owned by Bertelsmann and private equity group KKR, will make a joint bid for Parlophone and other assets, the FT said. The two plan to split the assets and will not form another joint venture, it said.

Sony declined to comment. BMG could not be immediately reached for comment.

Other bidders for the EMI labels on sale include Warner Music and Ronald Perelman’s investment company MacAndrews & Forbes, the FT has said.

(Reporting by Mayumi Negishi; Editing by Richard Pullin)

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Tehran Is Choked by Annual Buildup of Air Pollution

TEHRAN — Already battered by international threats against their nation’s nuclear program, sanctions and a broken economy, Iranians living here in the capital are now trying to cope with what has become an annual pollution peril: a yellowish haze that engulfs Tehran this time of year.

For nearly a week, officials here and in other large cities have been calling on residents to remain indoors or avoid downtown areas, saying that with air pollution at such high levels, venturing outside could be tantamount to “suicide,” state radio reported Saturday.

On Sunday, government offices, schools, universities and banks reopened after the government had ordered them to shut down for five days to help ease the chronic pollution. Tehran’s normally bustling streets were largely deserted.

Residents who dare to go outside cover their mouths and noses with scarves or surgical masks, but their eyes tear up and their throats sting from the mist of pollutants, which a report by the municipality of Tehran says is made up of a mixture of particles containing lead, sulfur dioxins and benzene.

“It feels as if even God has turned against us,” Azadeh, a 32-year-old artist, said on a recent day as she looked out a window in her apartment that often offers a clear view of Tehran, a sprawling city that is home to millions. But on this day, Azadeh, who did not want her full name used, saw only the blurred outlines of high-rise buildings and the Milad communications tower in the distance. The setting sun was reduced to a yellowish coin by the thick blanket of smog.

The haze of pollution occurs every year when cold air and windless days trap fumes belched out by millions of cars and hundreds of old factories between the peaks of the majestic Alborz mountain range, which embraces Tehran like a crescent moon.

Iran is prominently represented in the World Health Organization’s 2011 report on air quality and health, with three of its provincial towns among the organization’s list of the world’s 10 most-polluted cities. According to the report, Tehran has roughly four times as many polluting particles per cubic meter as Los Angeles. Many cities known for their poor air quality, like Mexico City, Shanghai and Bangkok, are cleaner than Tehran.

But since 2010, when American sanctions on Iranian imports of refined gasoline began to bite, the situation has grown worse, according to the report by the municipality of Tehran.

Faced with possible fuel shortages, Iran surprised outsiders by quickly making up for the loss of imports by producing its own brew of gasoline. While the emergency fuel kept vehicles running, local experts warned that it was creating much more pollution.

A recently released report by Tehran’s department of air quality control contained blank spaces where there should have been information about levels of benzene and lead — components of gasoline — in the capital’s air. But the report did state that while Tehran experienced more than 300 “healthy days” in 2009, in 2011 there were fewer than 150.

Iran’s Health Ministry has reported a rise in respiratory and heart diseases, as well as an increase in a variety of cancers that it says are related to pollution.

The state newspaper Resalat on Saturday called the pollution a continuing crisis, and it urged the authorities to act. “Why is it that when the winds pick up, this problem is again quickly forgotten?” an editorial asked. Another newspaper, Donya-e-Eqtesad, which is critical of the government, pressed for an improvement in gasoline standards.

The pollution caused by the use of the emergency fuel concoction has been a taboo subject here, as officials try to portray each measure to counter the economic sanctions as a success that should not to be criticized by the local news media.

On state television, several officials have denied that the yellow haze has anything to do with the locally produced gasoline.

In an interview on Saturday, Ali Mohammad Sha’eri, the deputy director of Iran’s Environmental Protection Organization, strongly denied that the pollution was linked to gasoline. However, he said that only 20 percent of the emergency fuel was up to modern standards. “Hopefully in three months that level will be 50 percent,” he said.

Meanwhile, the government has imposed strict traffic regulations in Tehran, Isfahan and other major population centers. An odd-even traffic-control plan based on the last digit of vehicle license plates keeps about half of the approximately three and a half million cars in Tehran off the streets on a daily basis.

Other plans to combat the pollution have been less realistic, analysts say. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has long advocated a plan to move civil servants from Tehran to reduce overpopulation in the capital. In 2010, the governor of Tehran Province ordered crop-dusters to dump water on the smog in an effort to dissipate it. There have also been plans for placing air purifiers in the city, but experts say they will not work in open spaces.

For those living in Tehran and unable to leave town for a vacation home on the Caspian Sea, waiting for the winds to pick up seems to be the only option.

“My head hurts, and I’m constantly dead tired,” said Niloufar Mohammadi, a university student. “I try not to go out, but I can smell the pollution in my room as I am trying to study.”

Azadeh, the artist, said the pollution forced her to stay indoors, adding to her sense of isolation. Step by step her world was being curtailed, she said. The Western sanctions imposed on Iran make her feel like a pariah, she explained. The government’s mismanagement of the economy and the resulting inflation have left her with little purchasing power, she said; she has stopped shopping for everything but essential items. And last week, security officers removed her illegal satellite dish from her roof.

“The pollution is the last straw for me,” she said. “We should wait helpless for winds to pick up and clean the air before we can safely leave our houses. It shows we have lost all power to control our lives.”

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